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THE BIG IDEA: Fresh polling appear Monday shows that voters who backed Barack Obama in 2012 and afresh Donald Trump in 2016 — about 1 in 10 of the president’s supporters — overwhelmingly accept the Trump tax cuts annual the affluent and ample corporations, not them.

It’s the latest analogy of the GOP’s disability to capitalize on the best consequential allotment of legislation that’s been allowable by this Congress, which affair strategists believed aftermost December would be the centerpiece of their midterm messaging.

And it helps explain why Trump has amorphous claiming repeatedly, and dubiously, aback a Saturday stop in Nevada that he’s affective rapidly to canyon a “10 percent tax cut for middle-income families.” During a assemblage aftermost night in Houston for Ted Cruz, the admiral declared: “It’s activity to be put in aing week.” (Never apperception that Congress is out of affair until afterwards the elections, so annihilation could pass.) He added that this annular of cuts is “not for business — at all.”

The detached Democracy Fund, through its Aborigine Abstraction Group, has been allotment accurate analysis from academics and analysts who are affiliated to both parties to advice explain the electorate. For the latest report, the left-leaning Roosevelt Institute’s Felicia Wong asked 16 questions of 6,000 respondents. The ample sample admeasurement accustomed her to analyze differing attitudes amidst Trump voters who accurate Mitt Romney in 2012 and those who backed Obama’s reelection. Actuality are bristles nuggets from her report:

— Overall, while added than 90 percent of Americans appetite lower taxes for the boilerplate class, one-third of those who voted for Trump accept that the boilerplate chic will be the aforementioned or worse off beneath aftermost year’s tax cuts. And 55 percent of self-identified Republicans do not accept that acid taxes for the affluent affliction to be a priority. “You aloof see a lot of abeyant fissures aural the Republican coalition, or at atomic the Trump coalition,” Wong said in an interview.

— The admiral appealed to these blue-collar voters who had backed Obama four years beforehand by advancement as a populist. But he’s mostly absolute as a plutocrat. He said at times on the attack aisle that he’d accession taxes on the rich, go afterwards barrier armamentarium managers by closing loopholes that benefited them and not chase acceptable bourgeois trickle-down orthodoxy. It feels like age-old history now, but Trump additionally insisted during the attack that he was so affluent that he didn’t allegation to booty money from big donors, and he said this fabricated him beneath bound to the affluent elites who he complained accept commonly controlled the GOP. He additionally commonly attacked Hillary Clinton for giving paid speeches at Goldman Sachs — and afresh proceeded to banal his administering with Goldman admiral already he took office.

— Added surveys accept begin agnate results: An centralized poll conducted for the Republican Civic Board aftermost ages begin that Americans by a two-to-one allowance — 61 percent to 30 percent — accept the law allowances “large corporations and affluent Americans” over “middle chic families.” The aforementioned survey, conducted by the GOP aing Accessible Assessment Strategies and leaked to Bloomberg News, begin that Americans are additionally abashed that the tax law will beforehand to cuts in Amusing Aegis and Medicare. 

— A Washington Post-ABC Annual poll conducted this ages begin that hardly added Americans assurance Democrats (45 percent) than Republicans (42 percent) to do a bigger job of administering taxes. That’s absolutely a actual shift.

— All these numbers explain why few Republican incumbents are proactively touting tax cuts on the attack trail. A address appear by the Wesleyan Media Project aftermost anniversary begin that Republicans are active beneath ads on taxes than in antecedent elections. “For all of the aboriginal allocution about the tax bill actuality a big Republican diplomacy point in the campaign, argument of taxes in 2018 is lower than it was during 2008 and the aboriginal two cycles afterwards Obama’s election,” said Travis Ridout, who co-wrote the study. “Republicans are added acceptable to acknowledgment taxes this aeon [than Democrats], but they absolutely aren’t as focused on it as they were a decade ago.”

— Trump, anytime the salesman, is an affected customer of polling, abnormally of the centralized variety, so it’s not awfully hasty that he’s taken to able a new annular of tax cuts abandoned for the boilerplate class. White Abode aides and GOP aldermanic leaders say a that they’re acquirements for the aboriginal time from the president’s accessible proclamations about assignment they’ve purportedly been accomplishing abaft the scenes for months.

— Flashback: Assembly Majority Leader Mitch McConnell took a achievement lap afterwards the tax cuts passed. “If we can’t advertise this to the American people, we affliction to go into accession band of work,” he said.

— “Republican aldermanic leaders, who would allegation to adviser any tax cut through Congress, appeared bent off bouncer already afresh by Trump’s latest comments,” Damian Paletta and Erica Werner appear aftermost night. “Representatives of Abode Apostle Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) and Abode Ways and Agency Board Administrator Kevin Brady (R-Texas) referred questions aback to the White House. … Legislation d such a cut has not been planned on Capitol Hill, and aldermanic Republicans were a agnostic that a vote could appear during the post-election bruised abstain session, which adeptness be bedeviled by a activity over Trump’s bound wall.”

— On the substance: “However absolute — on a calibration of not decidedly absolute to absolutely abstract — the new Trump tax-cut abstraction represents acceptance that the big tax check hasn’t paid cogent assets for best Americans,” writes Steve Goldstein, Washington agency arch for MarketWatch. “That was accessible from the alpha to anyone advantageous attention. For a common household, the archetypal change was $930 per year, per the Tax Activity Center. That added $78 per month, d the able denial changes were made, gets calmly absent amidst added ascent costs, including the about 35-cent access in the bulk of gasoline prices aback the tax-cut legislation was active into law.

“That’s alike the case if you agency in the flood of accumulated announcements of age-old agent bonuses afterwards the tax-cut bill was allowable that the Trump Commerce Department estimates was annual $30 billion in aggregate. And, remember, for the archetypal household, 2018 may be the aiguille of the tax law’s benefit, because the brackets are indexed to a admeasurement of aggrandizement that’s beneath than what best bodies experience. That isn’t alike accepting into the affair of the 2025 dusk of the abandoned tax provisions.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) greets Admiral Trump aftermost night at Houston’s Toyota Center. (Evan Vucci/AP)

BRAND NEW THIS MORNING:

— “The challenge for ascendancy of the Abode charcoal aing and adamantine fought, according to a new Washington Post-Schar Academy poll of the best contested districts in the country, with Democrats currently captivation a statistically bush beforehand over Republicans,” Dan Balz and Scott Clement report. “The latest analysis shows abandoned a bordering change in the chase during the ages of October, with 50 percent currently acknowledging the Democratic applicant in their commune and 47 percent abetment the Republican. Candidates from the two parties collectively are active about alike in 48 contested aldermanic districts won by Trump in 2016 while Democrats authority the advantage in 21 aggressive districts won by Hillary Clinton. The Democrats’ beforehand in those Clinton districts has narrowed a bit aback the alpha of the month. The cutting majority of the districts surveyed — 63 of the 69 — are currently represented by a Republican in the House. Collectively these battlefield districts voted acerb for Republicans in the 2016 election. The actuality that the margins today are area they are illustrates both the bulk to which the GOP majority is at accident but additionally the actuality that abounding abandoned contest are acceptable to be close.”

“Overall, acceptable voters in these districts accord the two aloft parties mixed-to-negative marks. Democrats are rated agreeably by 48 percent and afield by 52 percent. For Republicans, it’s 47 percent absolute and 53 percent negative. … Best voters accept a favorable appearance of one affair and a abrogating appearance of the added party, but 10 percent say they animosity both parties. Voters in that accumulation say they currently adopt the Democratic candidates in their districts by a allowance of 15 points.

“If anything, accessory attitudes accustomed during the month. … To the bulk that Democrats accept any bend in these districts, it is because of abutment from women, as was the case in the antecedent poll. Amidst acceptable voters, men favor Republican candidates by 51-46 percent, while women aback Democrats by 55-42 percent.

— Independents are abundant added acceptable than partisans to say their vote is “against” a party’s candidate. Clement, who directs our centralized polling unit, flags some absorbing numbers from the cantankerous tabs for The 202: Amidst those who abutment Republican candidates, 38 percent of independents say their accommodation is mainly “against” the Democratic candidate, abundant academy than the 20 percent of self-identified Republicans who abutment GOP candidates. Similarly, 39 percent of independents who abutment Democrats say they are mainly voting “against” the Republican applicant rather than “for” the Democrat. A abate 22 percent of self-identified Democrats say this.

Nearly alert as abounding acceptable voters who abutment Republican candidates say their vote is added in favor of the Republican applicant than adjoin the Democrat, 51 percent to 27 percent. Voters who abutment Democrats additionally tend to say they are motivated added by abutment for the party’s applicant than activity to the Republican candidate, admitting by a abate 45 percent to 29 percent margin. About a division of those who abutment Democrats (23 percent) say they are motivated appropriately “for” the Democrat and “against” the Republican, while 18 percent of Republicans say they accept according absolute and abrogating motivations.

— Added abstracts shows Republican-affiliated voters are outpacing their Democratic counterparts in aboriginal voting beyond seven key states, NBC News’s Adam Edelman reports: “GOP-affiliated voters accept surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in aboriginal voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas . . . Abandoned in Nevada accept Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in aboriginal voting . . . The latest abstracts suggests able-bodied activity amidst aboriginal Republican voters that could put a cavity in Democratic hopes for a ‘blue wave.’”

THE 2018 NARRATIVE:

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— “Trump has acclimatized on a activity of abhorrence — abstemious with falsehoods and racially brave address — to advice lift his affair to achievement in the advancing midterms,” Ashley Parker, Phil Rucker and Josh Dawsey address on this morning’s advanced page: “Trump’s messaging — on affectation in his approved attack rallies, tweets and columnist statements — abundantly avoids abundant allocution of his achievements and instead offers an apocalyptic eyes of the country, which he warns will abandoned get worse if Democrats balance ascendancy of Congress. The admiral has been abnormally focused in contempo canicule on a band of about 5,000 migrants traveling arctic to cantankerous the U.S. border, a accumulation he has darkly characterized as assemblage members, agitated abyss and ‘unknown Boilerplate Easterners’ — a affirmation for which his administering has so far provided no accurate evidence.

“The admiral believes his best adverse with Democrats is on clearing and is adorable for a way to accumulate the affair in the annual until the midterms, admiral said. Stephen Miller, Trump’s arch activity adviser who has connected consort awkward clearing policies, is one of the arch authors of Trump’s assemblage messages, admitting the admiral about goes added than his able remarks. … ‘Voter achievement is the adversary of aborigine turnout,’ said Bill Stepien, the White Abode political director. … The casual band has accustomed to be a decidedly able block affair for Trump, according to White Abode aides and Republican operatives. Images of the band are already assertive cable annual coverage, acceptance Trump to animate an affair that was acknowledged for him two years ago. … Barry Bennett, a aloft Trump attack adviser, declared the band as ‘a political gift.’”

— The New York Times fronts a analogously affected adventure by Alex Burns and Astead Herndon, admitting with a widened aperture: “Mr. Trump has not been abandoned in gluttonous to bisect the electorate forth ancestral curve this fall: As the aldermanic elections accept approached, a cardinal of Republican candidates and political committees accept delivered letters audibly aimed at stoking cultural all-overs amidst white voters and alike ambrosial to apparent racism.

Quite the kicker: “Mr. Trump’s dystopian adumbration has acutely larboard an consequence with some. Carol Shields, 75, a Republican in arctic Minnesota, said she was abashed that casual gangs could booty over people’s summer basin homes in the state. ‘What’s to stop them?’ said Ms. Shields, a retired accountant. ‘We accept a lot of bodies who alive on lakes in the summer and winter achieve else. Aback they appear aback in the spring, their abode would be occupied.’”

— Democrats are disconnected over how best to acknowledge to Trump’s claims about the caravan, abnormally his argument that its actuality is the aftereffect of Democratic cessation on clearing policy. Sean Sullivan and David Nakamura report: “Some Democrats said Trump is accessible to a argue on his bulk attack affair accustomed that his behavior bootless to abate the cardinal of crooked immigrants. Yet affair leaders and Democratic candidates accept abundantly been bashful … refusing to accredit with Trump. … Democrats, acutely disconnected on immigration, are aggravating to beforehand a laserlike focus on bloom affliction and the GOP blackmail to protections for bodies with preexisting medical conditions … But some Democratic strategists and aloft aldermanic aides said the affair was missing a adventitious to pin the ascent bound numbers on Trump and authority him answerable for falsehoods he has acknowledgment about the issue.”

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross watches Admiral Trump allege in the Rose Garden. (Alex Brandon/AP)

— The Supreme Cloister cloistral Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross from defective to acknowledgment questions in a accusation arduous the accession of a citizenship catechism to the 2020 Census, balustrade with the Trump administering over several states, including New York. Robert Barnes and Tara Bahrampour report: “The court’s activity makes it absurd that Ross will accept to accord a degradation in the case but allows the clothing to go forward, at atomic temporarily. The cloister said it would absorb added objections from the government afore the trial, which is appointed to alpha in New York on Nov. 5.

President Trump listens as CMS arch Seema Verma speaks during a White Abode meeting. (Evan Vucci/AP)

— In the Trump administration’s latest move to attenuate Obamacare, allowance subsidies can now be acclimated for bacteria bloom diplomacy that don’t awning “essential” allowances or preexisting conditions. Paige Winfield Cunningham reports: “Under advice issued Monday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Casework (CMS), states gluttonous federal waivers to run their allowance marketplaces will be accustomed abundant added leeway. That includes the adeptness to administer ACA subsidies to concise and affiliation bloom diplomacy — two types of advantage the administering has broadcast as a way of authoritative cheaper diplomacy accessible to those who appetite them. These diplomacy don’t accommodate advantage of assertive ‘essential’ allowances like mental-health casework and prenatal affliction and they can debris to awning bodies with preexisting conditions.”

White Abode Arch of Agents John Kelly listens to Admiral Trump in the Oval Office. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

— White Abode Arch of Agents John Kelly got into a concrete argument with aloft Trump attack administrator Corey Lewandowski afterwards a February affair with the admiral in the Oval Arrangement that appropriate Abstruse Service intervention. The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman and Katie Rogers report: “[The episode] is the latest analogy of the about anarchic atmosphere Mr. Trump is accommodating to abide in the White Abode as able-bodied as a absorption of the bulk to which Mr. Kelly’s atmosphere can be provoked. … As Mr. Kelly absolved adjoin a alley arch aback to his office, he declared to addition to aish Mr. Lewandowski from the building. The two afresh began arguing, with Mr. Lewandowski speaking loudly. Mr. Kelly affective Mr. Lewandowski by his collar, aggravating to beforehand him adjoin a wall, according to a being with absolute ability of the episode. Mr. Lewandowski did not get concrete in response, according to assorted bodies accustomed with the episode. But Abstruse Service agents were declared in. Ultimately, the two men agreed to move on[.]” This adventure comes afterwards Kelly got into a profanity-filled shouting bout with civic aegis adviser John Bolton over clearing aftermost Thursday.

George Soros, architect and administrator of the Open Society Foundations, attends the European Council On Adopted Relations Annual Affair in Paris beforehand this year. (Francois Mori/AP)

GET SMART FAST:​​

AmeriCorps programs face multiple allegations of animal harassment, calumniating behavior and corruption aback 2013. An analysis begin the Corporation for Civic and Association Service, which oversees AmeriCorps, was apathetic to acknowledge to accusations of animal aggravation adjoin one program’s founder. (CBS News)

Four declared victims of animal beforehand in Utah are attempting to use a article in the accompaniment architecture to get their cases prosecuted. The Utah architecture allows declared abomination victims to ask the accompaniment Supreme Cloister to accredit a prosecutor if a commune attorney’s arrangement declines to accompany accuse in a case, as it did in all four of the animal beforehand cases. (Deanna Paul)

The Air Force has spent $326,785 on appropriate coffee mugs that can reheat liquids aboard air refueling tankers, but the cups breach easily. Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson accustomed in a letter that the connected acquirement of the cups, which bulk $1,280 each, “is artlessly irresponsible.” (USA Today)

The Museum of the Bible in D.C. removed bristles items anticipation to be Dead Sea Scrolls afterwards their actuality was questioned. The pieces were activated by a Germany-based firm, which assured they adeptness not be genitalia of the age-old manuscripts. (Marisa Iati)

THE KHASHOGGI CRISIS:

— Erdogan speaks. Turkish Admiral Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke aboriginal Tuesday morning, alleging he has advice the killing of Post accidental columnist Jamal Khashoggi was “planned,” and calling for the displacement of the 18 Saudis that the commonwealth active in the killing at their admiral in Turkey. From Kareem Fahim in Istanbul: “Covering up this affectionate of abomination will aching the censor of all humanity,” he said. “Saudi Arabia took an important footfall by accepting the murder. Afterwards this, we apprehend them to acknowledge those amenable for this matter,” Erdogan said. “We accept advice that the annihilation is not instant, but planned.”

–CIA administrator Gina Haspel is headed to Turkey. John Hudson, Shane Harris and Josh Dawsey report: “[Haspel’s arrival] suggests an accomplishment by the U.S. intelligence association to appraise the advice the Turks have, including what Turkish admiral accept said is audio that captures the killing. Intelligence admiral are added agnostic of the Saudi annual and accept warned [Trump] that the abstraction that rogue operators flew to Istanbul and dead Khashoggi afterwards the ability or accord of Saudi leaders is dubious … The arch affair for Washington is that Erdogan will acknowledge capacity about Khashoggi’s killing that accuse Acme Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, who has been a key accessory for the Trump administration. . . . On Monday, Trump told reporters that ‘I am not annoyed with what I’ve heard’ from Saudi Arabia and apprenticed to get to the basal of what happened.'” 

— A bipartisan accumulation of added than 50 assembly beatific a letter to Administrator of Civic Intelligence Daniel Coats ambitious advice about whether U.S. admiral attempted to acquaint Khashoggi about plans to ambition him. Karoun Demirjian reports: “‘We seek afire answers as to whether Mr. Khashoggi was in actuality contacted about the aboveboard blackmail to his activity and addition airish by the Saudi artifice to abduction him,’ the members, led by Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), wrote to [Coats].”

— Khashoggi’s afterlife has casting a beginning spotlight on MBS’s attempts to drove bone aural Saudi Arabia. Kevin Sullivan reports: “The badge came for Samar Badawi in the boilerplate of the night in July, diplomacy her out of her abode as she agitated her arrant 3-year-old daughter. They set up klieg lights and filmed the arrest of Badawi, 37, a arresting animal rights activist. … Badawi, who charcoal in bastille afterwards charge, was one of at atomic eight women’s rights activists arrested beforehand this year. Several of them headed a attack that ultimately led Mohammed to accord Saudi women the appropriate to drive — a accustomed move that won acclaim from about the world. It has never been fabricated bright absolutely what Badawi’s declared abomination was, or why the others were detained.”

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— How Khashoggi’s ancestors could go afterwards the perpetrators: “Seeking amends and accountability for Khashoggi’s killing will not be easy, but several mechanisms do abide to go afterwards [MBS] and the Saudis who reportedly agitated out the murder,” Post columnist Josh Rogin notes. “Khashoggi’s ancestors has the appropriate to accompany amends in civilian courts, and prosecutors in several countries could additionally accompany bent charges, based on all-embracing law and precedent. . . . Criminal prosecutions of MBS and added Saudi admiral could be brought beneath the U.N. Convention adjoin Torture, to which Saudi Arabia is a signatory.” The U.S. has not yet assured that MBS is anon affiliated to Khashoggi’s killing, but those arrested had links to his aegis services.

Security footage appears to appearance Jamal Khashoggi and fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, at an Istanbul apartment just hours afore his afterlife at the Saudi Consulate. (A News/AP) 

NEW GRISLY DETAILS EMERGE:

— Saud al-Qahtani, a top abettor to the acme prince, “ran” the killing of Khashoggi by giving orders over Skype, Reuters reports: “In the Khashoggi killing, Qahtani was present as he has been in added key moments of MBS’s administration. This time, though, his attendance was virtual. According to one baronial Arab antecedent … Qahtani was beamed into a allowance of the Saudi admiral via Skype. He began to bung blame at Khashoggi over the phone. According to the Arab and Turkish sources, Khashoggi answered Qahtani’s blame with his own. But he was no bout for the squad, which included top aegis and intelligence operatives, some with absolute links to the aristocratic court. A Turkish intelligence antecedent relayed that at one point Qahtani told his men to actuate of Khashoggi. ‘Bring me the arch of the dog’, the Turkish intelligence antecedent says Qahtani instructed. … [Arab and Turkish sources told Reuters that the] audio of the Skype alarm is now in the control of Turkish Admiral Tayyip Erdogan.”

— Jamal’s final hours: Turkish media appear photos of Khashoggi and his fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, entering an accommodation circuitous in Istanbul on Oct. 2, just hours afore his death. The New York Times’s Carlotta Gall reports: “[Khashoggi and Cengiz], who is Turkish, are apparent captivation easily as they arrangement the bounded alliance arrangement and access the architecture area they had bought an accommodation that they were capacity afore he went to the arrangement at the Saudi Admiral from which he never emerged. … Photos from the bankrupt ambit television appearance the brace entering the accommodation in Topkapi, one of Istanbul’s oldest districts, a the actual sites of Hagia Sofia and the Dejected Mosque, in the aboriginal hours of Oct. 2. They larboard the architecture and were recorded entering the abode afresh aloof afterwards noon, the A Haber annual access reported. From there they took a auto calm to the Saudi Consulate. They beggared at the badge barrier as Mr. Khashoggi handed his two cellphones to Ms. Cengiz and at 1:14 p.m. entered the admiral alone.”

— Khashoggi met with the acme prince’s brother, Prince Khalid bin Salman, in Washington afore he was killed. NBC News’s Josh Lederman reports: “[Khashoggi] was visiting [the Saudi Admiral in Washington] on a accustomed consular matter, but he was bound accustomed by admiral officials, who anon declared up to Prince Khalid’s top-floor office. Soon, chat was beatific summoning Khashoggi upstairs, and the two spent about bisected an hour together. The affair at the tree-lined embassy, aloof beyond from the acclaimed Watergate, took abode in aboriginal 2018 or backward 2017.”

Nancy Pelosi speaks at a acuity in activity to Brett Kavanaugh. (James Lawler Duggan/Reuters)

MORE ON THE MIDTERMS:

— Nancy Pelosi appropriate that, if she were to become apostle of the Abode again, she would serve at atomic admitting the 2020 elections. Mike DeBonis and John Wagner report: “‘There has to be a alteration at some point in all of this,’ she said Monday, adding: ‘I’m not activity to accomplish myself a bruised duck.’ … Should Democrats win aback the Abode majority from Republicans, the abstraction of a ‘transitional’ apostle could authority address for anew adopted assembly who spent their campaigns calling for new affair administering but who appetite to abstain a blowzy anarchy that could set aback the party’s administering plans.”

— If Democrats balance the House, they adeptness attending to abet as able-bodied as investigate the Trump administration. From Seung Min Kim: “The White Abode is additionally analysis a political annual in award areas of agreement, and top administering admiral accept accomplished out to key Democrats to see area the two opposing abandon could collaborate. Shahira Knight, the White House’s administrator of aldermanic affairs, afresh had a clandestine sit-down with Rep. Peter A. DeFazio (D-Ore.), who would be the Democrats’ point being on infrastructure legislation should that apparent at the top of the aldermanic calendar in 2019.”

— Barack Obama, ambiguous for Nevada Assembly applicant Jacky Rosen in Las Vegas yesterday, is treading carefully. BuzzFeed News’s Ben Smith reports: “Obama spent abundant of his accent on a connected aegis of his own presidency, and accusation of Republican governance. ‘When you apprehend all this allocution about ‘economic miracles’ appropriate now, bethink who started it,’ Obama said. He denounced Trump’s attempts to burden the FBI and Department of Amends to ambition political foes. ‘That is not how America works. That is how some tin-pot absolutism works,’ he said. But Obama didn’t appear to Nevada to accomplish news, and he mostly didn’t. This is the box he’s in now. Alike as he’s belted abroad from the attitude of post-presidential silence, there’s a added applied acumen for his aerial campaigning: He’s said to be abashed his attendance would backfire, accord Trump a foil, and animate the Republicans who Democrats achievement will breach home in November.”

— Trump’s approval appraisement has trended advancement in contempo weeks, but it’s still at a point historically that agency agitation for his affair in the midterms. Aaron Blake explains: “Trump’s polling boilerplate on RealClearPolitics has risen from beneath 41 percent beforehand this ages to 44.2 percent … Trump’s 44.2 percent RCP boilerplate is about angry with or bigger than seven of the aftermost 17 presidents who faced midterm elections, according to Gallup polling at the time. That absolutely speaks to the abstraction that his aversion isn’t at the celebrated levels it already was. But anniversary and every one of those presidents who were at 44 percent or beneath suffered abundant losses in those accessible midterms — in the House, the Assembly and about both. Obama is a abundant example. While his Gallup approval appraisement three weeks afore the 2010 midterms was area Trump’s is today (44 percent), the Democrats that November absent 63 Abode seats and six Assembly seats.”

Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) gestures during a agitation with Democratic amateur Abigail Spanberger in Culpeper, Va. (Steve Helber/AP)

— Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) has bent abuse for borrowing heavily from the assignment of aloft Fed arch Ben Bernanke in a cardboard he wrote as a Randolph-Macon Academy economics professor. Laura Vozzella reports: “Brat’s cardboard was a appraisal of Bernanke’s, so he quoted from the aboriginal piece. But instead of summarizing Bernanke’s autograph in his own words, or appliance citation marks to adduce him directly, Brat artlessly seemed to cut and paste. … A adolescent at the London Academy of Economics who came beyond Brat’s cardboard aftermost anniversary declared it ‘plagiarism’ and contacted Randolph-Macon about ‘apparent bookish misconduct.’ Others — including [Bernanke’s co-author, Refet Gurkaynak] — said it wasn’t a case of plagiarism. But they still alarm Brat’s assignment a ‘lazy’ allotment of scholarship because he should accept abbreviated the aboriginal cardboard in his own words or acclimated citation marks to accomplish it bright that the words were not his own.” Brat is bound in a bound chase with Democratic  amateur Abigail Spanberger north of Richmond.

— Florida’s suburbs highlight the bisect amidst the state’s about right-leaning white retirees and the added left-leaning and assorted adolescent adults. Tim Craig and Aaron Williams report: “As voters actuality in America’s best belled exhausted accompaniment adapt to accept a new governor and advice adjudge which affair controls the U.S. Senate, the affray of angle in [a common Orlando suburb] represents the action over Florida’s administering in Trump’s America. … Florida’s citizenry of nonwhite adolescent adults continues to billow and now outpaces the advance of beforehand white residents. The trends actualize alike added ambiguity in a accompaniment already accustomed for aing elections[.]”

— Republicans are authoritative a last-ditch accomplishment to anticipate the reelection of Sen. Joe Manchin in the anxiously red accompaniment of West Virginia. Politico’s Burgess Everett reports: “On Monday, Donald Trump Jr. and aloft Fox Annual host Kimberly Guilfoyle rallied supporters for GOP applicant Patrick Morrisey and rained bottomward blame on Manchin, afterward a weekend arrangement from Vice Admiral Mike Pence. Citizens United laid bottomward a $500,000 ad buy touting Morrisey as the ‘only applicant we can trust.’ And [Trump] is because a arrangement actuality aloof afore Acclamation Day … A Trump arrangement could bind the race, which has gotten abroad from Morrisey of late. He insists the chase is angry in his centralized polls, but accessible acclamation announce the West Virginia advocate accustomed would accept to arise a aloft improvement to exhausted Manchin.”

— A dozen ancestors associates of Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt appear an op-ed opposing his gubernatorial bid. From Isaac Stanley-Becker: “They based their address not aloof on their relative’s political positions but additionally on his claimed character. They accused him of ‘phoniness’ and ‘self-serving political purposes.’” The op-ed comes afterwards six ancestors of GOP Rep. Paul Gosar attack an ad acknowledging his Democratic opponent, David Brill.

— The RNC has spent added than $1.5 actor at Trump-owned backdrop during the 2018 acclamation cycle, according to FEC filings. The Hill’s Owen Daugherty reports: “A majority of the money comes from a few big-money contest captivated at Trump’s hotels in New York, Washington, D.C. and resorts in Florida, best conspicuously a $367,365 bill racked up at the Trump Civic Doral Golf Club by the RNC in June … That accident was for the RNC’s 2018 Bounce Affair at the resort, one of the bigger of the year.”

— And 2020 has begun: Kamala Harris campaigned for Iowa Democrats on Monday in a examination of her acceptable bid for president. Politico’s David Siders reports: “In contempo days, an adviser [said], Harris beatific $25,000 to the Democratic parties in all four aboriginal nominating states: Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. … ‘We allegation to accept a bigger eyes for this country,’ Harris told about 200 activists central a association academy amphitheater in burghal Des Moines, balustrade adjoin Republican bread-and-er behavior that she said accept aching alive Americans. Framing an addition — as she did in Wisconsin over the weekend — Harris accustomed a $6,000 tax breach that she proposed aftermost anniversary for families earning up to $100,000 annually, a banal bulletin for her accomplishment to affix with Democrats in the Midwest.”

Georgia gubernatorial applicant Stacey Abrams, right, voted aboriginal Monday at the South DeKalb Mall in Decatur. She was aing by Martha Session, left, from Workers United. (Tami Chappell/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

GEORGIA IN FOCUS:

— Bloom affliction and apprenticeship are accustomed to boss the aboriginal televised agitation tonight amidst Democratic gubernatorial appointee Stacey Abrams and her Republican adversary Brian Kemp, as they attack to woo the few actual ambivalent voters in the state. You can watch a alive beck actuality at 7 p.m. Eastern. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein looks at what to watch: “For Abrams, it will be a beginning befalling to busy on her alarm to aggrandize the Medicaid affairs and check the state’s accessible academy funding. And Kemp could acclaim his abecedary pay accession plan and his vow to cap accompaniment spending.”

— Abrams’s accord in a 1992 protest, during which a accompaniment banderole was burned, has started surfacing on amusing media. The New York Times’s Richard Fausset reports: “At a beef on the accomplish of the Georgia Capitol in 1992, [Abrams] aing in the afire of the accompaniment flag, which at the time congenital the Confederate action banderole architecture and was beheld by abounding as a abiding attribute of white supremacy. … Ms. Abrams’s campaign, in a account Monday, said her accomplishments in 1992 were allotment of a ‘permitted, peaceful beef adjoin the Confederate adumbration in the flag’ and allotment of a movement that was ultimately acknowledged in alteration the flag.”

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Understanding Your Tax Forms 12: 12-G, Certain Government Payments – georgia tax forms 2015 | georgia tax forms 2015

— “A ‘great about-face migration’ of African Americans to the US south from the arctic could about-face historically Republican genitalia of Georgia’s accompaniment capital, Atlanta, from red to [blue],” the Guardian’s Khushbu Shah reports: “William Frey, demographer and [Brookings Institution fellow], said a key to this aisle is the beginning Gwinnett County on the outskirts of Atlanta, area abounding atramentous bodies accept confused in contempo years. . . . All eyes are on whether Gwinnett will go to the Democrats, signalilng a about-face in what was one of the staun Republican states in the American south, if not the absolute [U.S.].”

— “The . . . added absinthian Georgia governor’s chase was consistently activity to appear bottomward to voting rights,” the Daily Beast’s Patricia Murphy reports: “For about a decade, the two accept clashed over that actual and emotionally-charged issue, with [GOP appointee Brian] Kemp administering elections as Georgia’s secretary of accompaniment and Abrams . . . active a nonprofit to annals added boyhood voters for accompaniment elections. In the past, Kemp has accused Abrams of bent aborigine fraud, while Abrams has declared Kemp’s role in elections annihilation abbreviate of audacious aborigine suppression.”

— A Georgia Tech apprentice who says Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) took his buzz to abstain a catechism about aborigine aishment is suing the administrator for battery. Amy B Wang reports: “Attorneys for Nathan Knauf, a inferior at Georgia Tech, filed the complaint in Fulton County Accompaniment Cloister on Monday morning, gluttonous a board trial, bearding damages, attorneys’ fees and others costs from Perdue. Perdue’s arrangement has maintained that the barter was a confounding and that the agent took the student’s buzz to booty a selfie. On Monday, Perdue’s arrangement declared the accusation ‘outrageous and absolutely frivolous.’”

Members of the Maghawir al-Thawra Syrian activity accumulation accept accoutrements training from U.S. Army Appropriate Forces soldiers at the Tanf aggressive beginning in southern Syria. (Lolita Baldor/AP)

THE NEW WORLD ORDER:

— A babyish U.S. abject in Syria could become a key basic of the Trump administration’s efforts to beforehand aback adjoin Iranian access in the region. Missy Ryan reports: “This tiny billet [Tanf], a assortment of dirt-filled bang barriers and tents amidst by the immense arid of southern Syria, was accustomed to cycle aback the Islamic State’s once-vast domain. But its cardinal position forth a artery bond the Syrian administering in Damascus to its backers in Tehran has fabricated the abject an adventitious barrier adjoin Iranian access in Syria and, now, a abeyant locus in White Abode diplomacy to accost Iran’s ability beyond the region.”

— A absolute centralized abstraction of the U.S. Army’s achievement in the Iraq War, which was spearheaded by aloft Army arch of agents Gen. Ray Odierno, has remained abstruse amidst authoritative delays. The Bank Street Journal’s Michael R. Gordon reports: “[Odierno] abiding for 30,000 pages of abstracts to be declassified. For about three years, [a] aggregation advised those affidavit and conducted added than 100 interviews. By June 2016, it had drafted a two-volume history of added than 1,300 pages. … Gen. Odierno retired afore the aggregation could accomplishment the history, which afresh became ashore in centralized reviews and procedural byways. … In the accomplished few months alone, Army admiral debated whether the abstraction should be accustomed or disowned. Afterwards a high-level analysis aftermost month, Army admiral issued instructions to aish a exordium acquainted the abstraction had been ‘commissioned’ by the Army and to abrade it of added signs that it had top-level sponsorship. Afterwards the Journal aftermost anniversary asked Gen. Odierno’s almsman as arch of staff, Gen. Mark Milley, about the Army’s administering of the study, he antipodal those moves and vowed to address his own foreword. … He says he hopes to broadcast the abstraction by year’s end.”

— Potentially upending relations with Central America, Trump vowed to cut off or “substantially” carve aid to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in backfire for the casual caravan. (John Wagner and David Nakamura)

THE GENDER WARS:

— Trump said his administering is because “different concepts” apropos transgender rights — acknowledging what some Trump admiral accept declared as a agitation aural the administering over whether to ascertain gender as abiding and anchored at birth. “We’re adorable at it. We accept a lot of altered concepts appropriate now,” the admiral told reporters. “They accept a lot of altered things accident with account to transgender appropriate now … And we’re adorable at it actual seriously.”

— HHS “has been blame for the change, a beginning and absolute aim at transgender rights, acquisitive added departments embrace that access for across-the-board impact,” Laura Meckler, Samantha Schmidt and Lena H. Sun report. “But it is cryptic whether there is abutment for the broader accomplishment or whether the adjustment would be issued at all, as some in the administering are blame back. … [The Apprenticeship Department] is not acquisitive to chase HHS’s lead, and the Amends Department is deferring to HHS, according to administering officials. It’s cryptic what the Apprenticeship Department’s specific apropos are, but for abounding years, Secretary Betsy DeVos has a accurate [LBGT rights] and has been abashed to punch aback their protections.”

— Jordan Evans, who is believed to be the abandoned aboveboard transgender adopted Republican, said the activity angle fabricated her “afraid for bodies who are adolescent than me.” Isaac Stanley-Becker reports: “Evans, 27, is a boondocks constable and an adopted library trustee in Charlton, Mass. … ‘I am afraid,’ the Republican baby-kisser said in an interview. ‘I’m absolutely distraught.’ ‘Not so abundant abashed for me,’ antiseptic Evans, who has been accustomed by those aing to her aback she aboriginal came out as transgender in 2013 and began to medically alteration in 2015. ‘I’m abashed for bodies who are adolescent than me — bodies who don’t accept the affectionate of adventures in the apple that I’ve had. They see this, and they’re appropriately terrified.’”

Rudy Giuliani addresses a acquisition during a attack accident for Eddie Edwards in Portsmouth, N.H. (Charles Krupa/AP)

THERE’S A BEAR IN THE WOODS:

— Rudy Giuliani said that Paul Manafort has “not said annihilation damaging” about Trump in his affairs with Bob Mueller afterwards argumentation accusable aftermost month to accuse filed by the appropriate counsel. Giuliani’s ability of the conversations comes as allotment of an abnormal joint-defense acceding amidst Trump and Manafort, which allows their acknowledged teams to allotment advice afterwards actionable attorney-client privilege. Reuters’s Karen Freifeld and Nathan Layne report: “Legal experts said it was abnormal for such an acceding to abide in aftereffect afterwards a being pleads accusable and agrees to abet with prosecutors as Manafort has done. … [But] Giuliani said he had announced with Manafort’s lawyer, Kevin Downing, as afresh as aftermost week.”

— Meanwhile, Mueller continues to assignment bottomward on Rogers Stone’s abeyant contacts with WikiLeaks during the 2016 election. CNN’s Sara Murray reports: “Additionally, board are adorable into whether Stone aggregate advice that he believed was from WikiLeaks with associates of Trump’s presidential campaign, according to a antecedent accustomed with the probe. Board accept been provided recordings of Stone claiming he talked to Trump consistently aboriginal in the 2016 presidential campaign, CNN has learned.”

— Agent Advocate Accustomed Rod Rosenstein and aloft Trump attack abettor George Papadopoulos are both set to affirm abaft bankrupt doors this anniversary afore Abode committees. Rosalind S. Helderman and Karoun Demirjian report: “It will be the aboriginal time that Papadopoulos … has announced to aldermanic investigators. For added than a year, aldermanic panels investigating Russian arrest accept capital to allege with Papadopoulos about his exhausted to two Russian nationals during the campaign, as able-bodied as his interactions with a London-based professor, Joseph Mifsud, who told him in April 2016 that the Russians had clay on then-Democratic appointee Hillary Clinton in the anatomy of bags of her emails. … Rosenstein’s annual is accustomed to focus in allotment on letters that he appropriate taping the president’s conversations or gluttonous to use the 25th Amendment to aish Trump from office.”

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

The president’s son implored Republicans to vote, alteration his access afterwards beforehand admonishing of a red wave:

Civil rights figure John Lewis reminded his Twitter followers of the sacrifices fabricated to defended the right to vote:

Trump offered condolences to the Republican assembly appointee in Pennsylvania:

A Column anchorman actual Trump’s evolving assessment on the appellation “nationalism”:

A CNN anchorman reacted to Trump’s tax cut talk:

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A Bank Street Journal anchorman who covers tax activity added:

A GOP pollster accent these numbers:

Trump brushed off this catechism about his 2016 primary battles with Ted Cruz:

A Yahoo Annual editor aggregate Trump’s 2016 tweets about Cruz:

Cruz airtight the Houston Chronicle:

But a CNN anchorman pushed aback adjoin Cruz’s characterization:

A Houston Chronicle anchorman aggregate this video of an aboriginal voting band in Texas:

A accessible Abode Republican accustomed Paul Ryan to Minnesota:

Meanwhile, Trump additionally offered his endorsement to Paulsen:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) campaigned for the Republican gubernatorial appointee in Minnesota:

Speaking of Minnesota, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) continues benumbed to reelection. And she appears to have every ambition of active for admiral in 2020. One big acquaint is that in her debate, she advisedly beneath to accomplish to serve her abounding six-year term:

A Column anchorman analyzed a photo of the Treasury secretary with the Saudi acme prince:

Khashoggi’s editor at The Column declared out a media organization’s accord in the Saudi broker conference:

From The Post’s agent exhausted folio editor: 

Post columnist Jason Rezaian acclaimed this:

A New York Times television analyzer compared Trump’s comments about the band to what he said about ISIS in 2014:

A BuzzFeed Annual anchorman provided these updates from the caravan’s journey:

A adduce from Christine Blasey Ford’s affidavit during Brett Kavanaugh’s acceptance audition appeared at Yale Law:

Rowers paddle alongside Harvard University. (Charles Krupa/AP)

GOOD READS:

— Politico Magazine, “What Is Harvard Aggravating to Hide?,” by Josh Gerstein: “The first, abrupt cloister showdown over Harvard’s admissions behavior came on October 5, 1990. The day before, the Apprenticeship Department had clearly completed a two-year-long analysis into Harvard’s admissions practices … [But unbeknownst to the public], as the analysis unfolded, the admiral cut a accord with Harvard to accumulate its annal secret. The annal — now decrepit and yellowing from several moves and basement floods and appear online actuality for the aboriginal time — confute some of Harvard’s key claims about its admissions process. The university had connected claimed that preferences for recruited athletes and legacies served abandoned as a tiebreaker amidst applicants with ‘substantially equal’ qualifications. . . . But the abstracts calm by the Apprenticeship Department independent some atomic information.

“It showed the athletes and declared legacies who were absolutely accustomed had lower SAT array … and were additionally accounted beneath adorable candidates[.] One brilliant swimmer got in with a accumulated SAT of 970 out of 1600[.] A standout wrestler denticulate acceptance with a 1090. … [And some comments admissions officers] wrote on the appliance folders of accustomed legacies acerb appropriate article added than a tiebreaker was at work. ‘Double lineage, but lots of problems … ’ [said addendum on a] acknowledged appliance … ‘Lots of birth actuality … Adamantine to explain a NO,’ yet accession said. ‘Classical case that would be adamantine to explain to DAD.’”

— “Confederate pride and prejudice,” by Frances Stead Sellers: “Perhaps the best advancing of American emblems, the Confederate banderole is ashore in a history of bullwork and allegory in the South. But admitting contempo moves to eradicate it from statehouses, agent authorization plates and abundance shelves, the banderole has been accustomed far from its founding region, still aerial from ample Victorian houses in New Jersey, aloft barns in Ohio and over music festivals in Oregon. … For [some], the Confederate banderole reflects 21st-century pride in a anatomy of American character that harks aback to the belligerent ability of the white settlers of Appalachia. To others, aerial the banderole for ‘white grievance’ is artlessly racism by a altered name, an accomplishment to redefine bellicism as the interests of white Americans.”

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— A California adjudicator has ordered Stormy Daniels’s advocate and abeyant 2020 Democratic presidential applicant Michael Avenatti to pay $4.85 actor to an advocate at his aloft law firm. The AP reports: “Los Angeles Superior Cloister Adjudicator Dennis Landin issued the cardinal afterwards axis bottomward a appeal from Avenatti to accept the bulk confused to federal court, which the opposing ancillary declared a adjournment tactic. … The adjudicator said Avenatti charge pay the money because he alone affirmed a adjustment with Jason Frank, who had formed at his aloft firm. Frank had declared the aing misstated its profits and that he was owed millions. Avenatti … told [the AP] on Monday that Frank owes him and the aing $12 actor ‘for his fraud.’ He did not accommodate details.”

— “Michael Avenatti Lived the Aerial Activity While Owing Millions to IRS,” by the Daily Beast’s Kate Briquelet: “A analysis of cloister abstracts reveals that Avenatti, his aloft law aing Eagan Avenatti, and his aloft aggregation Global Baristas, the majority buyer of the Seattle-based Tully’s coffee chain, accept owed millions in contributed federal and accompaniment taxes in Washington and California, as able-bodied as hundreds of bags in past-due hire to landlords … [And] afore Avenatti became Trump’s] tweet-baiting nemesis, he was cutting up a account of acknowledged victories that resulted in a cord of multimillion-dollar verdicts. … These victories bankrolled a affairs that Avenatti’s additional wife declared as abundant in annulment pleadings. Lisa Storie-Avenatti says the brace enjoyed a multimillion-dollar home in Newport Beach, all-embracing and calm biking via clandestine jet … She said that aback 2010, Avenatti raced in about 33 able sports car contest in the United States and Europe, including the 24 Hours of Le Mans in France, area his aggregation included Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al Saud.”

HOT ON THE LEFT:

“’Broad City’ stars appetite Clinton not to run again,” from The Hill: “She fabricated a adornment on their show, but the stars of [‘Broad City’] say Hillary Clinton shouldn’t accomplish accession run at the White House. ‘I adulation Hillary. I don’t anticipate she should run again,’ Abbi Jacobson [said]. ‘It’s like sad for me to say that,’ Jacobson, 34, added. ‘I feel like we still actual abundant allegation her to be complex in some way. I don’t apperceive what that is.’ … ‘We allegation a Democratic socialist. We allegation addition who hasn’t been in the apparatus for this bulk of time,’ said [Ilana] Glazer. … ‘I anticipate it needs to be Kamala Harris [or] Elizabeth Warren,’ said Glazer … The Comedy Central brilliant additionally mentioned [Joe Biden] as a abeyant ‘unifying’ White Abode contender.”

HOT ON THE RIGHT:

“Kevin McCarthy on Amusing Media Hunt for Rock-Throwing Suspects,” from Cycle Call: “A ample slab of bedrock was befuddled through the window of Abode Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s commune arrangement in Bakersfield Monday — and he’s hitting amusing media to acquisition the culprits. The California Republican acquaint aegis camera photos of two men on amusing media forth with a photo of a bedrock about the admeasurement of a haversack amidst by burst bottle on the attic of the offices. ‘Does anyone apperceive these two guys?’ McCarthy asked his followers. According to an Instagram column by McCarthy, his arrangement window was burst with a ‘boulder’ and arrangement accessories was stolen.”

DAYBOOK:

Trump will allege at the White House’s “State Administering Day Conference” to bounded admiral from Alaska, California and Hawaii. He will afresh assurance a baptize basement bill and afterwards accommodated with arch aggressive leaders for a conference and dinner.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: 

Trump said he’s appear up with a new appellation for Ted Cruz: “He’s not Lyin’ Ted anymore. He’s Beautiful Ted. I alarm him Texas Ted.” (Seung Min Kim and Felicia Sonmez)

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

— Washingtonians should get alfresco to adore the sunshine and warmer temperatures on this altogether abatement day. The Basic Acclimate Assemblage forecasts: “Mostly brilliant Nice Day cachet with temperatures peaking in the afternoon in the mid-to-upper 60s, with conceivably a few spots affecting 70. Watch for a few aerial clouds to clarify into the account during the afternoon, with a bit of a breeze developing from the southwest about 10 mph. Adore this weather, as it’s the best of the week.”

— The Wizards exhausted the Aisle Blazers 125-124 in overtime. (Candace Buckner)

— The Capitals won adjoin the Canucks 5-2. (Samantha Pell)

— Commune admiral said scammers auspiciously blanket about $700,000 from the D.C. government by impersonating a burghal vendor. Peter Jamison reports: “The fraud, appear by D.C. admiral in acknowledgment to questions from The Washington Post, has led to beefed-up aegis protocols in the arrangement of D.C. Arch Banking Administrator Jeffrey S. DeWitt. David Umansky, a agent for the arch banking officer, said that [a Treasury Department investigation] is advancing and that none of the city’s money has been recovered.”

— A aegis bouncer at the Fox 5 television base in Northwest Washington attack and blood-soaked a man afterwards he kicked his way through the station’s entrance. The man, articular as George Odemns, was accustomed to George Washington University Hospital in analytical but abiding action and answerable with second-degree burglary. (Tom Jackman and Clarence Williams)

— A 15-year-old aerial academy apprentice is in badge aegis afterwards allegedly authoritative threats adjoin a aerial academy and elementary academy in Arctic Virginia. Badge said the threats were fabricated on amusing media and included an “image of an beforehand rifle,” which the apprentice allegedly acquired online. Admitting his threats were accounted as “not credible,” law administering admiral said Monday that they had added police presence on both campuses for the day. (Dana Hedgpeth)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Late-night hosts mocked Trump for advancement for Ted Cruz afterwards calling him “Lyin’ Ted” during the 2016 primaries:

A anticipate catchbasin called for John McCain is ablution an ad attack calling for the new bearing of “mavericks” to backpack on the backward senator’s legacy:

An abnormal advertisement was fabricated at Trump’s Texas rally:

Prince Harry said he hopes the new aristocratic babyish will be a girl:

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