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Meritage Homes Corp  (NYSE: MTH)

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Q3 2018 Antithesis Appointment Call

Oct. 25, 2018, 11:00 a.m. ET

Operator

Good morning and acceptable to the Meritage Homes Third Analysis 2018 Analyst Appointment Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Afterwards today’s presentation, there will be an befalling to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please agenda this accident is actuality recorded.

I would now like to about-face the appointment over to Brent Anderson, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead

Brent Anderson — Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, Chad. Acceptable morning. Acceptable to our analyst alarm to altercate our third analysis and year-to-date 2018 results. We issued the columnist absolution afterwards the bazaar bankrupt bygone and you can accretion it alternating with the slides for this alarm on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations articulation at the basal of our homepage.

I’ll accredit you to advance two and admonish you that our statements during the call, as able-bodied as the columnist absolution and slides, accommodate advanced statements, including our projections for 2018 operating metrics such as closings, acquirement margins and earnings. Those and added projections represent the accepted opinions of management, which are accountable to change at any time and we accept no obligations to amend them. Any advanced statements are inherently ambiguous and absolute after-effects may be materially altered than our expectations. We’ve articular the accident factors that may access our absolute after-effects and listed them on this slide, as able-bodied as in our columnist absolution and best contempo filings with the SEC, accurately our 2017 Annual Abode on Anatomy 10-K and consecutive 10-Q for the added analysis of 2018.

We’ve additionally provided a adaptation of assertive non-GAAP banking measures referred to in our columnist absolution and presentation as compared to their aing GAAP measures.

With me today to altercate our after-effects are Steve Hilton, Chairman and CEO of Meritage; Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Phillippe Lord, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Meritage. We apprehend to achieve the alarm aural about an hour and a epitomize will be accessible on our website about an hour afterwards and afresh it will abide alive for about two weeks.

I’ll now about-face it over to Steve to assay our third analysis results. Steve?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Brent. I’d like to alpha off by thanking some of my aeon who abode afore us for demography some of the antecedent slings and arrows that we were initially assured in ablaze of the contempo about-face in the market. So, we’re action to try to accumulate this ablaze and fun today.

So, I’m action to alpha off on advance four. I’ll activate with a few highlights of the quarter, afresh assay our advance on the cardinal about-face we entered into a brace of years ago, and assuredly altercate some contempo bazaar conditions.

First, we had addition analysis of acceptable earnings. We delivered double-digit closing and pre-tax antithesis advance over aftermost year in Q3. Our absolute home closing advance grew 10% over aftermost year, primarily due to an bigger achievement in the South and college antithesis about-face associated with our entry-level strategy. Combining the added closes with the bulk increases we took beforehand in the year, we were able to authority our home closing gross allowance and aerial advantage abiding admitting cogent bulk headwinds, which Hilla will altercate in added detail later.

Pre-tax antithesis added 13% and net antithesis added 27%, benefiting from a lower approved assets tax bulk this year. As a result, adulterated antithesis per allotment were up 30% year-over-year which added our earning book bulk per allotment to $42.51.

Second, our East arena contributed decidedly to those year-over-year assets with 32% added closes in the third quarter, which generated 31% greater home closing acquirement over aftermost year. The gross allowance on those closes bigger 160 abject credibility year-over-year, which abundantly narrowed the gap amid the East and our added two regions. Those improvements are mostly the aftereffect of some self-help measures we accept implemented in the aftermost brace of years as one of our cardinal initiatives and we appetite to admit those advisers who accept contributed to that success.

Now, I’ll about-face to advance five. Third and best importantly, we connected our cardinal investments, focused alone on the entry-level bazaar and affordable aboriginal move-up homes. We accept this positions Meritage to abode the bigger accumulation of home buyers over the long-term, namely millennials and babyish boomers, as we avenue out of the acknowledgment second-time move-up in affluence markets.

We opened 19 new entry-level communities during the quarter, added than bisected of the absolute new communities opened in the analysis continuing our amplification into the market. Entry-level communities fabricated up a third of our absolute alive communities and 43% of our absolute orders for the third quarter, a cogent access over 2017, with entry-level represented 33% of our absolute orders and abundant college than our starting point of 24% in 2016. Constant with our aftermost several quarters, about 80% of the lock we put beneath arrangement during the analysis were for entry-level homes. The appeal in our entry-level communities abide to beat our move-up stores. They’ve not alone awash at a abundant college assimilation clip to our move-up homes, but the margins were additionally hardly college for the entry-level homes compared to move-up homes.

As accepted aloof beneath bisected of our closes in the third analysis were from blueprint inventory. We’re architecture mostly on a blueprint abject in best of our entry-level communities. Our third analysis were 2% lower than aftermost year’s and our antithesis was bottomward 1% year-over-year, assimilation the contempo abatement in bazaar demand. While this makes the concise angle beneath — accessory beneath certain, we accept the abiding angle the apartment bazaar continues to be absolute based on demographics and bread-and-er trends. Employment is high, accomplishment are growing, chump aplomb is aerial and inventories of home are still low, abnormally for the affordable entry-level single-family homes.

Our cardinal about-face advancing slowing appeal at the college end of the bazaar and we’ve been pivoting to do focus added entry-level and added affordable aboriginal time move-up markets and we’ve been purchasing acreage for these bulk credibility aggressively for the aftermost brace of years. We accept that this is the adapted action for us and we are assured that Meritage is well-positioned for the abiding as the bazaar continues to about-face that direction. However, the aing several abode may be inclement for our industry as buyers acclimatize their expectations for assimilation rates.

I’ll now about-face it over to Phillippe for some added insights into our operational performance. Phillippe?

Phillippe Lord — Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Steve. I’ll abode our third analysis adjustment trends, as able-bodied as our angle and affairs in an operational level. Advance six. As others accept appear already, bazaar altitude accept become added arduous over the aftermost brace of months. We accept the third analysis adjustment abatement reflected a aggregate of accustomed seasonality, buyers afraid as they accept adapted the appulse of college home prices and assimilation rates, and what they can allow and what they can apprehend in affairs their absolute home. We saw that reflected in our all-embracing adjustment trends which masked the absolute appulse we would contrarily be seeing from our about-face to the entry-level market.

Despite the 2% abatement in third analysis orders, we were encouraged that cartage and gross orders were both up year-over-year, admitting abandoning acicular at the end of the quarter. Our third analysis abandoning bulk added to 17% this year from 13% in 2017, advertence added buyers ambiguity as able-bodied as an disability of some buyers to authorize for everyman acclaim levels and delays in affairs absolute home for move-up and move-down buyers. We additionally had some weather-related disruptions from Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas and unseasonably wet acclimate in Texas. We accepted to advertise out of a cardinal of communities during the analysis which we didn’t do, so our boilerplate alive communities for the analysis of 2018 was up 2% which was college than we forecasted.

The abatement in orders and access in boilerplate association adding bargain our boilerplate orders per community, which was 7.1 this year compared to 7.4 in the third analysis of aftermost year. The slowing in move-up orders and college aggregate abandoning masked the fast adjustment clip per association from our college assimilation entry-level communities. We did see a abatement in our boilerplate sales bulk to about $391,000 compared to $480,000 a year ago as our entry-level communities became a greater allocation of our aggregate and our California operations beneath conspicuously due to a bound association count.

Slide seven. Our East arena orders were bottomward 9% year-over-year in the third analysis afterwards actuality up 12% aftermost quarter. Slower sales were axiomatic in the 14% abatement in assimilation per store. Hurricane Florence was amenable for allotment of the declines in North and South Carolina as we absent about two weeks of action due to the affairs and aftermath. Additionally, we saw few orders at move-up bulk credibility beyond the arena with a added broad-based slowing in Atlanta. With alone about a analysis of our communities based in the entry-level client in the East, we weren’t able to account declines in our move-up communities with college entry-level orders to the aforementioned admeasurement as our added regions.

Slide eight. Affective to advance eight, the Central arena connected to be our arch performer. We’ve encountered some buyers at college bulk credibility in Dallas and to some bulk is Houston added recently, but our Austin and San Antonio communities which are predominantly entry-level connected to advertise able-bodied as they are in the candied atom of the market. Our 9% access in adjustment clip for the Central arena added than account a 2% abatement in boilerplate association val compared to aftermost year’s third quarter.

Slide nine. Our orders in the West arena were bottomward 5% year-over-year, assimilation a 40% — 42% abatement in our boilerplate association adding California and abatement in the bazaar from ascent assimilation ante and affordability challenges. Admitting a slight abatement in our Arizona absorptions we produced the accomplished orders per boilerplate association actuality for the analysis and we abide actual absolute due to our solid entry-level attendance as able-bodied as bounded demographics and bread-and-er trends. Colorado has been our accomplished assimilation bazaar in the aggregation year-to-date. Our abiding angle for the bazaar charcoal actual absolute admitting we saw an access in cancellations in September, mostly at college bulk points. We accept afresh alien added affordable banknote accessories and apprehend to see solid achievement from our new entry-level flags there.

I’ll now duke it over to Hilla to accommodate some added information. Hilla?

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

Thank you, Phillippe. I’ll accommodate some added capacity on our P&L as able-bodied as accoutrement the acreage and antithesis breadth metric. Beginning on advance 10. Our home closing gross allowance for the third analysis of 2018 was 18.1% and included a $2.6 actor allegation to write-off assets associated with the acquirement acceding in California that we entered into several years ago, but absitively to aish aback it wasn’t constant with our accepted strategy. The allegation impacted our home closing allowance by 30 abject credibility which contrarily would accept been 18.4% in bandage with our added analysis guidance. This additionally impacted adulterated EPS by about $0.05 per share.

We did get some abatement from barge appraisement that came bottomward in the third analysis from the awful aggrandized levels we’ve apparent for best of the year. That auto will activate to account our closing allowance at the appendage end of this year and into 2019. Absolute SG&A was about collapsed as a allotment of home closing acquirement for the third analysis at 11% in 2018 compared to 10.9% in 2017. We incurred the allegation to true-up our healthcare allowance affluence due to some ascent costs and additionally absitively to advance the reconfiguration of our move-up architecture studios and aeon out of new technology for our entry-level sales centers. The absolute appulse of these costs on our SG&A was about 35 abject credibility for the third analysis of 2018.

Our year-to-date net antithesis are up 41% over aftermost year and adulterated EPS was up 45% year-over-year for the aboriginal nine months of 2018, assimilation the college closing volume, bigger year-to-date gross margins and lower 2018 tax rate.

Turning to the antithesis breadth and banknote breeze items on advance 11. Our net debt-to-cap arrangement came bottomward to 39.2% at September 30, 2018 from 41.4% at the end of 2017. We are adequate bottomward beneath our low 40% ambition as we appraise the accepted abeyance in the bazaar and may accept to either reinvest antithesis banknote in acreage purchases as the bazaar altitude antithesis or redeploy it into debt and disinterestedness repurchases if the contempo pullback is added than temporary.

We acclimated $29.4 actor of our $100 actor allotment repurchase allotment to acquirement and retire about 686,000 shares at an boilerplate bulk of $42.79 per allotment in the third quarter. And we’re planning to repurchase added shares this quarter. We apprehend to see the allowances to our EPS on a go-forward basis.

Total acreage and development absorb was about $193 actor in the third analysis of 2018 compared to $286 actor in aftermost year’s third quarter. For the aboriginal nine months of 2018, our absolute acreage and development spending is about $154 actor beneath than aftermost year. We accept assured positions that are no best accumbent with our low-price point action and are actuality added bourgeois in our acreage underwriting, although we’re still actively attached up acreage that fits our strategy. We added about 3,400 new lots beneath ascendancy during the quarter. 82% of the lots we’ve added beneath ascendancy year-to-date in 2018 were for entry-level zones.

Our absolute lot accumulation at September 30, added by about 1,100 lots year-over-year to about 34,400 lots. That translated into our 4.2 year accumulation based on abaft 12-months closing this year compared to 4.4 year accumulation at September 30, 2017. We endemic about 66% of our absolute lot account with the beneath architect advantage as of September 30, 2018.

Slide 12. Based on our softer orders in the third analysis and the aboriginal few weeks of October, we’re adjusting our projections for full-year 2018 home closing to about 8,300 homes to 8,500 homes, with absolute homes closing acquirement of about $3.375 billion to $3.475 billion. That’s about 6% to 9% advance over 2017. We are additionally hardly adjusting our expectations for home closing gross margins to be about 18% for the abounding year compared to aftermost year’s 17.6%, in apprehension of abeyant bulk pressures and bargain leverage. The net aftereffect of those revisions reduces our pre-tax antithesis expectations to about $265 actor to $285 actor for the abounding year. Our able tax bulk is accepted to abide at 25% for the antithesis of 2018.

With that, I’ll about-face it aback over to Steve.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Hilla. In summary, we are admiring with the antithesis advance we’ve delivered so far this year and accept we are able-bodied positioned in the bazaar for the abiding with our focus on accouterment added affordable homes. We’ve been pivoting bottomward the bulk bandage for two years and we accept this will be the best abode to be as the bazaar cycles accustomed the curtailment of affordable single-family homes. Ascent assimilation ante alone accent this shortage. We’ve been assured assimilation ante to rise; we’ve had a 5% to 6% assimilation bulk in apperception as we accept evaluated new association positions. We’re assured that our action is adapted for these bazaar dynamics and will serve us able-bodied over the long-term. Acknowledge you for your abutment at Meritage Homes.

We’ll now accessible it up for questions, and the abettor will admonish of the instructions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now activate the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) The aboriginal catechism will be from Michael Rehaut with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Elliot — JP Morgan — Analyst

Hi. Acceptable morning. This is Elliot (ph) on for Mike. You mentioned that 3Q abandoning bulk increased, I think, to 17% against 13% aftermost year. Would you be able to accommodate that by month, and breadth it assured the quarter?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

No, we can’t accord that up by month, but it did end the analysis at 17%.

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Elliot — JP Morgan — Analyst

Okay. Was that a quarter-end cardinal or is that affectionate of the boilerplate over the quarter?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

That’s the boilerplate over the analysis but it was apparently a little college than that in September.

Elliot — JP Morgan — Analyst

Okay. Great. Acknowledge you. And afresh secondly, how did sales clip advance throughout the quarter, maybe you could accommodate that on a month-to-month, and afresh additionally aloof affectionate of year-on-year for those months, and what accept you apparent so far in October?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

So, after giving you specific numbers, I can acquaint you that July was weak, we had the 4th of July which was in the average of the week. A lot of bodies took off the absolute week, so the aboriginal two weekends in July were appealing soft. But afresh in the closing allotment of the July, sales popped back. But for the accomplished month, we were bottomward in our year-over-year comp. August was a acceptable month, we had a double-digit access in August from the above-mentioned year. But afresh in September, things slowed bottomward afresh and we had a weaker September. We had added cancellations appear in afterwards in September. And October has been bendable so far. So, we still accept addition weekend larboard in October, but the aboriginal few weeks accept been appealing soft.

Elliot — JP Morgan — Analyst

That’s helpful.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

I can acquaint you that our cartage has captivated up absolutely well. Our cartage is in bandage with aftermost year and alike hardly up in some places. So, it’s not a catechism of whether bodies are absorbed in affairs new homes that we accept that they are. We aloof anticipate they are demography best to accomplish decisions and they’re demography a bit of a abeyance to abstract these college prices and college rates.

Elliot — JP Morgan — Analyst

Okay, acknowledge you.

Operator

The aing catechism comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Stephen Kim — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Yes, acknowledgment actual abundant guys. On this cancellations issue, we about like to accessory at it on a allotment of backlog, because it’s your antithesis that cancels, not necessarily the orders you aloof took. And on that basis, your abandoning bulk as a allotment of your antithesis went up but not actual much. So I was wondering, but acutely your annotation adapted you did see commodity that was account calling out. So, I guess, I was apprehensive if you could put some angle on what affectionate of communities and what affectionate of buyers were accomplishing the cancelling? Was this added higher-end association with accidental sales? Was this added entry-level association who had the ante move and aloof artlessly couldn’t afford, or if there’s any added affectionate of qualitative angle you can accommodate on the abandoning rate?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

It wasn’t any one authentic group, but I’d say it would angle added against the move-up. Bodies that were cancelling about fell in the brazier of buyer’s remorse. We didn’t see a lot of bodies aish because they couldn’t qualify. From what we’ve heard from our antithesis and the bodies we’ve talked to in avenue survey, aback they annulled there was — they hadn’t awash their home or they’re anxious about the college assimilation rate, what is it action to be against the assimilation bulk they accept on their accepted home and some of them aloof maybe acquainted now is not a acceptable time to buy. So — and we didn’t bandy a lot of incentives at bodies to try to accumulate them in the backlog. So, I anticipate it’s added of a cerebral agency added than a accomplishment situation.

Stephen Kim — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. That’s absolutely absolutely important about the allurement animadversion and that’s absolutely breadth I was action to go next. So in general, we brainstorm builders move to cull the incentives batten aboriginal to the mortgage aggregation and through accretion or giving abroad some options and so alternating so as to assure the ASP.

You’ve been affective to a added connected alms acutely afresh with your able axis to the entry-level and I was analytical as to whether you could animadversion on your accommodation maybe not to incentivize as abundant as you contrarily could have, is that in allotment because it is added difficult to action incentives in entry-level communities breadth you accept a added connected product, or was there a altered aspect to your action that would accept apprenticed you to authority off incentivizing? And is there annihilation that you’re advertent adapted now, accustomed what you’ve apparent so far in October, that would account you to accomplish any accouterment that we should apperceive about?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well I’d say — aboriginal of all, I’d say we accept added our incentives primarily on blueprint homes that we will aing this year as best builders accept done the aforementioned and we’ve done that beyond the board, but we’ve had a stronger focus on accretion those incentives in 2MU communities and communities that don’t fit with our strategy.

So, we would like to advance our about-face to added entry-level and so those assets that aren’t absolutely in that niche, in that segment, we’ve offered added incentives. Although our incentives accept added a bit on the entry-level, we’re acutely action that bazaar is bigger and we don’t feel like we accept to accord as abundant abroad to advertise those homes.

Stephen Kim — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. So you don’t accept to incentivize much?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well, we accept to accord a little added allurement adapted now because the newspapers are advertisement a lot of misinformation. But to that degree, absolutely there’s added appeal at the entry-level bulk point, so we don’t accept to accord as abundant allurement there.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

And, Stephen aloof to clarify, we’re absolutely alms incentives on Q4 accessible closings on blueprint and we’re adorable at every one of our communities, but there’s no all-embracing massive discounting that we’re doing. And Steve, we were not absolutely seeing added builders do the same. It’s a targeted cardinal association by association assay based on what’s occurring in that bazaar and some are captivation up actual able-bodied and don’t charge added incentives.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Aloof accentuate that, I beggarly it is market-by-market. We accept assertive markets that crave a lot beneath incentives and are abundant added abiding than others and I anticipate it’s been broadly appear what those markets are. Absolutely college priced, beneath affordable markets are the best arduous of all the markets.

Stephen Kim — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Got it. Acknowledgment actual much. Sounds actual sensible.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Stephen.

Operator

The aing catechism will be from John Lovallo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

John Lovallo — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Hey, guys. Acknowledgment for demography my questions as well. Aback you anticipate about the first-time buyer, maybe the millennials specifically, I beggarly do you anticipate of these buyers actuality affectionate of added need-based in nature, maybe accepting accouchement or accepting married, aloof affectionate of defective added space. And on top of that, the actuality that they don’t charge to advertise a home, would you accede them to be somewhat beneath afflicted by assimilation rates?

In added words, if bulk goes up a little bit, if ante go up a little bit or prices go up, maybe they buy beneath home, but they’re action to buy a home. And if that’s not how you guys feel, I beggarly what would accord you aplomb with ante continuing to go up and no absolute abatement in accumulation on the near-term horizon, what would accord you aplomb that this client is action to abide strong?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well, I anticipate that’s an authentic appraisal that they’re not so abundant focused on the assimilation rate, they’re focused on absolutely what the acquittal is, and a lot of these millennials accept been renting for a continued time, for a best aeon of time or active in their parents’ home for a best aeon of time than the bearing afore them. And already they accept accouchement and they get married, they’re action to move up to the suburbs and buy a home aloof like ancestors afore them, but they’re aloof action to accept to buy that plan below. We accept about six to eight affairs in our bandage up and there’s a acumen we accept that abounding because aback assimilation ante are higher, they got to move bottomward a plan or two. And we accept four bedchamber plans, that’s the aboriginal aboveboard footage aloof like we do at the beyond aboveboard footage. So, I anticipate we move aback and alternating on that bandage based aloft the assimilation rates.

John Lovallo — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Yes. That makes a amazing bulk of faculty to me. Okay. And afresh you guys alleged out that the entry-level margins, I accept you alleged this out, the entry-level margins were hardly college than on the move-up which was absorbing to me. I beggarly was this aloof bigger affectionate of efficiencies in the body action or was this partly due to college incentives on the move-up product?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

It’s for a lot of reasons. I beggarly some of those you mentioned, but apparently best chiefly it is aloof the appeal is stronger for that product, which allows us or doesn’t crave us to do as abundant incentives. But it is added able for us to build; we’re able to body it for a lower bulk on a batter per batter basis, and our barter contractors like to body that bigger and it’s added efficient. So for all those reasons, we are able to get a little bit bigger margin.

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John Lovallo — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Yes. That’s absolutely encouraging. Acknowledgment guys.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Our aing catechism will be from Stephen East of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Paul Przybylski — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Yes. This is absolutely Paul Przybylski on for Stephen. I assumption actual me if I’m wrong, but am I audition it accurately that you’re still focused on bulk against clip accustomed your abridgement of incenting I assumption your antithesis and focus on incentives on blueprint for the end of this year?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well, I’d say absolutely through the third quarter, we were added focused on bulk than pace. As we circle into the fourth quarter, we accept to get pace. We still appetite to get price. We’re not action to accord the acreage away, but we got to get some pace. And so for that reason, we’re accretion our incentives on blueprint homes that we can bear this year and time is active out for that. We accept a few weeks larboard and afresh we’re action to be affairs into aing year. Alike if you buy aback a spec, we won’t be able to accomplishment in time. So aloof as all builders are doing, we’re aggravating to accomplishment off our year able and get these homes that are done off the books.

Paul Przybylski — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Any blush on what your gross allowance is and antithesis at the end against what you appear for the aggregation this quarter?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

I anticipate it’s appealing aing to the same.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

We’re not assured a abasement throughout the year. Allotment of that is, we accept able numbers advancing into the quarter. We additionally accept this incremental advantage in Q4 on college volumes. If you affectionate of do the algebraic and get to that 18%-ish full-year guidance, the Q4 numbers accept to appear in a little bit at — or a little bit bigger than what we did in Q3.

Paul Przybylski — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Okay. I assumption how continued do you anticipate it will booty for you to absolutely move your alms abject to entry-level and aboriginal move-up, and be absolutely done with added move-up and luxury?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well, we’re action to be about 35% cast ambition of communities that face the entry-level buyer. At the end of this year, we’re action to be maybe addition 10% college or so. By the end of aing year, it will be a 45%, maybe with a little tailwind we can be at 50% by the end of aing year. But we’re accepting afterpiece and I anticipate we’ll be appealing abundant out of best of the 2MU. By the end of aing year, we’ll accept a few stragglers of advance that will go into 2020, but it will become added of an extraneous cardinal as we get afterwards into 2019. And afresh aback we anticipate about the 1MU market, we’re absolutely adorable at all of our acreage positions and the affairs on the acreage that we accept angry up and absolutely aggravating to focus on the 1MU communities that are absolutely added affordable, in the lower end of that bracket and that are absolutely the added adorable 1MU projects.

Paul Przybylski — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Thank you.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Our aing catechism will be from Nishu Sood with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Timothy Daley — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Hi, this is absolutely Tim Daley on for Nishu. Acknowledgment for the time. So my aboriginal catechism is, this analysis saw the aboriginal allotment buybacks done in several years and it acutely was telegraphed with the altercation on the aftermost alarm afterward the authorization. But aloof cerebration about it, Steve, how should we adapt this move? And afresh the account in the columnist absolution from the able animadversion apropos buybacks — is this action to be added of a structured affairs or are you action to be affectionate of advancing buybacks as a added opportunistic, I guess, appearance there?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well, I anticipate it’s array of both; it’s structured for now. Absolutely at these prices, it’s adorable to us. We accept $100 actor allotment and we’re action to abide to assassinate on that. And afresh as we go into aing year, we’ll see breadth we are. We accept a lath affair advancing up in November. Absolutely we’ll be talking about it there, but we absolutely accept to stop affairs aback banal aback we went into a blackout aeon which was —

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

September 15th.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

September 15th. So, all the shares we bought were above-mentioned to September 15th and acutely the prices are lower aback then, and we’ll get aback into the bazaar actuality aback we can.

Timothy Daley — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Understood. Acknowledgment for the color. I assumption and afresh the added question. So Hilla, you mentioned the headwinds to SG&A this analysis from the reconfiguration of the move-up architecture centers as able-bodied as the advance in the — I guess, I anticipate it was the technology in the entry-level sales centers. So, can you aloof accommodate a bit added blush on these changes? And afresh as able-bodied if you can some — any affectionate of account or changeabout of the headwind that I assumption you guys quantified for us this quarter? Acknowledgment for the time.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

Sure. So, I anticipate we’ve talked about it advanced that we’re accomplishing a change up in how we advertise options at the aboriginal time (inaudible). So there’s some concrete and technology changes that we charge to do in adjustment to get that new action up and rolling. So that is beneath way. We accept a brace of capacity already completed and we’re rolling through the blow of the country, that bulk will abide on although at a added mitigated akin action into ’19. We’re appealing abundant done with the rollout of our new sales action and new technology upgrades in our entry-level communities, so that’s abaft us. I do anticipate we’re action to be able to see some added leveraging of SG&A into Q4 and afresh rolling into 2019.

Timothy Daley — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Okay, acknowledge you.

Operator

Next catechism will be from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

Alan Ratner — Zelman & Associates — Analyst

Hey, guys. Acceptable morning. Acknowledgment for demography my question. So, if I accessory at advance 11, I’m artful your specs are up about 3% year-over-year and completed specs are up about 50%, which I apperceive a lot of that has to do with the about-face to entry-level. But, with your absorptions bottomward a little bit here, it still seems like a absolutely big increase. And Steve, I apperceive you alluded to maybe accretion the incentives a little bit in October to get some anniversary sales here, but account amid the lines, it doesn’t complete like you had a big addition in sales clip in October. So, at what point does that cardinal become apropos to you? And are you accomplishing annihilation either adjusting the architecture alpha schedules or commodity abroad aloof to affectionate of absolutely ambition that number, or is it at an optimal akin in your assessment alike with that increase?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well. As you know, Alan, we can do commodity absolutely simple to accept a big appulse on that. We aloof don’t alpha any new specs. So —

Alan Ratner — Zelman & Associates — Analyst

Right. That’s what I was accepting at there. Is that commodity that you’re absolutely adjusting adapted now?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

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Well, absolutely. I mean, we’re not accomplishing this in a exhaustion and we were adorable at that every week, every month. So, I can affiance you, there won’t be hell a lot of specs started in October in non entry-level communities. So, yes, we’re actual focused on managing that number. We anticipate we accept the adapted amount, maybe accept a little too abundant actuality and not abundant there, but it’s a action we feel adequate with, and we accept account to close, to advertise that we can aing this year, and we could accept an appulse on the basal line, and we’re adequate with that.

Our about-face bulk has steadily risen and you apperceive those builders that accept a stronger attendance in the access akin like Horton and Lennar accept a decidedly college about-face bulk than we have, alike ours has confused up absolutely a bit against some of our move up peers, and that’s because that’s the way you accept to advertise those homes, to that client segment. And with assimilation ante continuing to rise, I don’t anticipate a lot of buyers are action to be aflame about cat-and-mouse six months for a new home and they would like to move in adapted away. So I anticipate this action will account us over the long-term.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

And afresh Alan, aloof to analyze that the cardinal of specs we accept targeted for anniversary association at the access akin amplitude is a action of 1 to 5 sales. So, if sales are active bottomward artlessly our agenda for aback to alpha new specs is action to beat bottomward with it. So we’re ecology that every week’s new start.

Alan Ratner — Zelman & Associates — Analyst

So Hilla, that acutely impacts the new specs that are put on the ground. But I assumption aloof on the sales side, how — we apprehend from some added builders, activating pricing, adjusting appraisement every day, based on the sales clip and how advancing would you say you are in absolutely adjusting that appraisement apparatus in adjustment to accumulate that blueprint akin optimal? Because you alpha — alteration your starts is action to booty a little bit of a while to absolutely breeze through the arrangement there.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

For sure, that’s a fair point. I anticipate as Steve mentioned before, the specs that can aing in Q4 accept the best advancing allurement in the aggregation currently. We’re absolutely adorable to aing out the year as able as accessible in specs that are aloof accustomed specs and we will aing out in Q1. We are ecology on a association by association basis.

Alan Ratner — Zelman & Associates — Analyst

Okay and I acknowledge that. And added catechism if I could, with the about-face to access level, I am analytical if you’ve run any assay on your antithesis and your closings, et cetera, aloof affectionate of try to get at the acuteness of your buyers to added moves in rates, because acutely these buyers are action to be a little bit added decumbent to affordability issues, if there are some I would imagine. So, accept you accent activated your closings or antithesis to actuate what the fallout adeptness be if ante were to go up addition 50, 100 abject credibility let’s say based on the accepted assets profiles?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

We’re accomplishing that adapted now. We’re absolutely adorable at new communities that we accept in the action compared to communities that we’ve been affairs in to accessory at those buyers to see if they can allow college assimilation rate. And we’re accomplishing that aloof adapted now as we speak, and we don’t accept all that abstracts aback yet. But we do accept all-embracing that the bodies that are affairs our homes today, both in the access akin articulation and in the move up segment, are beneath leveraged compared to accomplished cycles, and they could if they chose absorb added money on their apartment in the anatomy of a college acquittal if they basic to. In the aftermost cycle, which you apperceive 10 years ago, I still bethink vividly, buyers were absolutely stressed, and they had absolutely DTIs and they had no allowance at all to allow a college payment, but I anticipate it’s altered this time and we’re befitting a aing eye on that.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

And Alan aloof one added —

Ivy Zelman — Zelman Partners — Analyst

Hey, Steve — sorry, guys, it’s Ivy, aloof basic to jump in there. Steve, if you can acquaint us in your affordable artefact offerings what percent of those buyers are utilizing FHA lending criteria?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

I can acquaint you that. Hilla, do you accept that?

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

Yes, I anticipate it’s about 17%. So, it’s not as abundant as you anticipate actually.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

So, they’re utilizing it breadth they can, but they’re not — that’s not the alone client ambition that — or the client accomplice that we’re testing into that pool. And aloof to analyze one added point, as we’re adorable at incentives, it’s not consistently allurement dollars off the top. Alan, to your point, if we’re award that this drive is the adeptness to authorize what the assimilation bulk by downs are absolutely addition batten we can authority in the blazon of incentives that we’re alms this customer.

Alan Ratner — Zelman & Associates — Analyst

Got it. All right. Thanks, guys.

Operator

The aing catechism will be from Susan Maklari with Acclaim Suisse. Please go ahead.

Susan Maklari — Acclaim Suisse — Analyst

Thank you. Acceptable morning. My aboriginal catechism is around, you fabricated cogent advance in the East region, continuing to aing the gap there from a allowance perspective. I assumption how abundant added is there that you anticipate you can apprehend and does any of the accepted appeal or the accepted array of appeal trends change the aisle of that?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well I anticipate to quantify for you absolutely how abundant added there is, but I can acquaint you there is decidedly added in both allowance and absorption, decidedly in our bristles capacity in the South and absolutely the appeal bearings there is no altered than in the blow of the country although it’s bigger than the aerial priced markets like California and Colorado. I’d say we’re apparently seeing a little bit more, little added challenges in the Atlanta than we are in some of the added markets. Florida continues to feel appealing good. We don’t — we’re not in South Florida in a allusive way and we apprehend the incentives are bigger bottomward there, but they accept to be acquiescent in Tampa and Orlando. But we still accept a lot of befalling to advance our business in the East arena and we’re actual focused on that.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

And let me analyze — sorry, aloof a quick correction. So we’re beneath 20% FHA client total. For the access level, it takes a little bit college than that. It’s in the 20%, 30% depending on the division.

Susan Maklari — Acclaim Suisse — Analyst

Okay. And afresh my added catechism is aloof around, you mentioned in your animadversion that you are demography a added bourgeois access to your acreage underwriting. Can you aloof accord us a little bit added blush about that?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

I mean, I anticipate we’re putting a college accent on bargain deals, and deals that crave added basic maybe that run out best we’re afraid abroad from a little bit. We’re apparently ratcheting up our allowance and ROA claim on some deals in assertive markets. Absolutely we’re cerebration about some of the incentives that are out there today in the fourth analysis and how those appulse the appraisement of our artefact and how they appulse the margins and acceleration of the deals that we’re — accept beneath arrangement and that we’re adorable at to purchase. So we’re demography a added bourgeois approach. We’re additionally — we additionally appetite to accompany our acreage absorb bottomward aing year because we appetite to accept clamminess accessible to pay bottomward debt as we go into ’20 and to buy aback banal and potentially do added things. So we’ll aloof be added bourgeois on what we’re affairs and committing to.

Susan Maklari — Acclaim Suisse — Analyst

Okay. Acknowledge you.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

The aing catechism comes from Jade Rahmani with KBW.

Ryan Tomasello — KBW — Analyst

Good morning. This is absolutely Ryan Tomasello on for Jade. Aloof piggybacking off of the acreage question, was apprehensive if you’re seeing any changes in that bazaar based on maybe antagonism or appraisement that you’re seeing, admitting your underwriting?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Not yet.

Ryan Tomasello — KBW — Analyst

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And is that capricious from bazaar to bazaar or any added blush you can accord there on a bazaar basis?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

I’d say it’s beyond the board, there hasn’t been any absolutely change in any markets that’s notable.

Ryan Tomasello — KBW — Analyst

Okay. And then, aloof accustomed the near-term accepted pressures on appraisement and margins, I was apprehensive if you can accord your adapted thoughts on off-side solutions in agreement of pre-construction artifact for assorted aspects of the home architecture process?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

There’s a lot of things action on out there in that area. Lot of talk, lot of abundant ideas, but nothing’s absolutely appear to accomplishment yet that we anticipate is action to accord that archetype shift. We absolutely accept that the befalling is absolutely added in pre-cutting and panelizing houses in the framing area, if we get to a abode breadth we could pre-cut — accept drywall pre-cut and added items they are accomplishing in home pre-cuts that absolute decay and labor, we still anticipate we’re a continued way from a absolutely modulized componentized home that’s congenital in a branch and delivered to the job site. I don’t see that accident in the aing few years. So, we’re befitting our eyes accessible and we’re additionally absolutely focused on how we can accomplish the sales action added able and how we can abate our business bulk and bear a added technology based able action to the customers, acquirement on the new home and the auction their absolute home.

Ryan Tomasello — KBW — Analyst

Great. Acknowledgment for the color.

Operator

The aing catechism will be from Carl Reichardt with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Carl Reichardt — BTIG — Analyst

Thanks. Hi, guys. You answered my acreage absorb question, but I basic to ask you about the move up lots. I anticipate we’re adorable at not too continued ago 15% to 20% of lots beneath ascendancy that were absolutely advised for added time move up. I aloof appetite to accomplish abiding I’m adapted in cerebration that your apprehension is to bright through those lots in the advance of the aing array of 12 months to 18 months, maybe 12 months to 24 months. And so I’m curious, I apperceive you’re not giving advice on 2019, but what’s your apprehension on how that adeptness appulse margins if business continues to be slowish in that authentic bulk point aing year?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

We’ll acquaint you aing quarter. It’s too aboriginal to tell.

Carl Reichardt — BTIG — Analyst

Okay. But aloof to clarify, I’m adapted that the action here, is it 15% to 20% of controlled lots and the abstraction is that you appetite to assignment through them ASAP through that period?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Carl Reichardt — BTIG — Analyst

Okay. All right. Thanks, Steve.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Operator

The aing catechism will be from Scott Schrier with Citi. Please go ahead.

Scott Schrier — Citigroup — Analyst

Hi. Acceptable morning. Aftermost analysis you talked about allowance in the West convalescent due to blame bulk in Arizona appealing hard, now it looks like your association count’s up there. ASP is down, I’m analytical what the like-for-like appraisement in Arizona adeptness be? And what you’re now cerebration in agreement of the allowance aisle from what’s in Arizona?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I beggarly afresh as I said earlier, I’m not action to accord any allowance advice adapted now. I beggarly we accept added our margins on our specs beyond the country, alike in Arizona. But Arizona continues to be about able and we’re accepting a lot of action decidedly on our entry-level communities in Arizona which we accept absolutely a few. I’d additionally say that one of our challenges has been as you saw our association adding in California has alone essentially over the aftermost year. We apprehend that to alpha action in the added administration in Q4 and we’re aperture absolutely a few communities in California. And best of them were at access akin bulk point. So we anticipate we’re action to be able to bear some adorable affordable homes in California to amuse the bazaar out there and I anticipate hopefully over Q4 and into Q1 that will advice our — rebalance our West Coast position.

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

We don’t accommodate advice by state, but accessory aboriginal aing anniversary for the bushing of the 10-Q and afresh you can see the margins by region.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Scott Schrier — Citigroup — Analyst

Great. And afresh if I anticipate about Texas, acutely absolutely able absorptions there, association adding did a little bit. But aback you’re adorable at your acreage spend, I beggarly are you still adorable to access up that association adding in Texas.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Modestly so. I beggarly our eyes are accessible to abide to abound our access akin business there. We accept actual able access akin business in Austin and San Antonio. We’ll let — so in Houston, we get added bottomward the bulk bandage in Houston but absolutely Dallas is the abode breadth we’re too abundant aggressive on the move up ancillary of business. So we charge to get bottomward bazaar and we are absolutely focused on accomplishing that and we accept a lot of access akin communities aperture there that we accept been alive on for the aftermost year to 18 months.

Scott Schrier — Citigroup — Analyst

Great, acknowledge you.

Operator

The aing catechism is from Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

Jay McCanless — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Aboriginal catechism I had, aback we accessory at the inventories of absolute homes for auction in several of the markets Meredith operates we’ve apparent inventories affective up on both a year-over-year abject and we’re seeing a consecutive access in periods breadth you should be seeing consecutive decreases. Can you allocution about what blazon of action you’re seeing alternating those curve in the acreage and has that had an outsized abrogating appulse on your move-up business, is that the acumen maybe that you’re seeing a auto in the abandoning bulk on the move-up side?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Clearly, aback there’s beneath buyers, the account akin adding rises, right. So there’s beneath bodies affairs move-up homes today, whether it’s acclimated homes or new homes because of college assimilation rates. Move-up home is added of a choice, it’s added of adopted decision. Entry-level home is added of a charge and bodies are adorable at their absolute home and they are saying, able-bodied I got 3.5% or 4% assimilation bulk here. So I buy this new home at a 5% bulk in a college bulk and they are somewhat electing to break put. And so that’s not account flash. That’s what we’ve been talking about bodies been talking about absolutely over the summer and alike in antecedent quarters. So, that’s why we’re authoritative the about-face to the entry-level bazaar and why we anticipate that allotment of market’s action to do better.

Jay McCanless — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Okay. And the added catechism to chase on that. Are you seeing any markets now breadth acreage prices are starting to appear bottomward either sequentially on a year-over-year basis, and if so, does that maybe accessible up an befalling for you guys to accomplish an accretion and advance that about-face into access level?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

No, we hit that before, we haven’t apparent any change in the acreage sellers disposition beyond the country in any markets. That may change over the aing brace of quarters, but at the moment, annihilation has absolutely changed.

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Jay McCanless — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Okay. Acknowledge you.

Operator

At this time, we accept one added catechism in the catechism chain and that catechism comes from Alex Barron with Apartment Analysis Center. Please go ahead.

Alex Barron — Apartment Analysis Centermost — Analyst

Thanks, guys. I was apprehensive if you could animadversion on what anatomy of incentives do you feel accept formed best for you so far, like adopting agent commissions or bulk buy downs or alms added for closing costs or alike acid prices, annihilation that you feel is alive adapted now?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Well, traditionally, we’ve been affairs added body to suites. We action incentives that bodies can use at architecture center. But now, as we confused to affairs added blueprint homes decidedly in the fourth quarter, it’s about about closing bulk and bulk buy-downs and aloof blurred the price, and it’s a aggregate of the three. We accept not offered a lot of added commissions. Some of our competitors use that action occasionally. We do it on a actual bound basis, not abiding how able it is, but we’re application the affectionate of the aforementioned toolkit of incentives that we’ve acclimated afore and annihilation has absolutely changed.

Alex Barron — Apartment Analysis Centermost — Analyst

Got it. And aloof to confirm, so it sounds like you guys are starting to abate specs added in the move-up, but in the access level, you’re still accomplishing the aforementioned blueprint starts?

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

That’s correct. But we adviser on a account and account basis, and if we don’t advertise a lot of houses this ages in a assertive community, we’re not action to alpha as abounding blueprint homes aing month.

Alex Barron — Apartment Analysis Centermost — Analyst

Got it.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

And it’s absolutely bent based aloft what the sales action is.

Alex Barron — Apartment Analysis Centermost — Analyst

Okay. Makes sense. Thanks, Steve.

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thanks, Alex. Is it the aftermost call? I anticipate that’s our aftermost question. So I acknowledge everybody’s accord in our alarm this analysis and we’ll accessory advanced to talking to you afresh in aboriginal February on our anniversary results. Acknowledge you actual much.

Operator

The appointment has now concluded. Acknowledge you for accessory today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

Duration: 54 minutes

Brent Anderson — Vice President, Investor Relations

Steven Hilton — Chief Executive Officer

Phillippe Lord — Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Hilla Sferruzza — Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

Elliot — JP Morgan — Analyst

Stephen Kim — Evercore ISI — Analyst

John Lovallo — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Paul Przybylski — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Timothy Daley — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Alan Ratner — Zelman & Associates — Analyst

Ivy Zelman — Zelman Partners — Analyst

Susan Maklari — Acclaim Suisse — Analyst

Ryan Tomasello — KBW — Analyst

Carl Reichardt — BTIG — Analyst

Scott Schrier — Citigroup — Analyst

Jay McCanless — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Alex Barron — Apartment Analysis Centermost — Analyst

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